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Prediction for CME (2025-04-13T08:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-04-13T08:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38357/-1
CME Note: A southeastern halo with a very complex system of several fronts that seem to be moving/expanding in unison. It is difficult to differentiate the bulk vs. shock components of the CME. There seems to be the more dense more southern part to the SW and also a fainter more 'halo' front. The source is a filament erupting starting 2025-04-13T05:00ZZ, stretching from S30E01 to S15W25 as seen in SDO AIA 304 (with more minor dimming reaching S01W30 as seen in SDO AIA 193), and centered ~S18W15. The arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 6nT at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to 17nT at 16:38Z and 27 nT by 18:24Z. Two subsequent increases in solar wind speed is observed, increasing from 400 km/s at 2025-04-15T16:36Z to ~480 km/s at 16:37Z and later an increase from 475 km/s to 600 km/s starting at 19:40Z, with density increasing to 35 p/cc at this time as well. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2025-04-13T08:00Z and CME: 2025-04-13T08:12Z, with possible influence from the arrival of CME: 2025-04-12T00:48Z, CME: 2025-04-13T00:12Z and CME: 2025-04-13T07:48Z. Magnetic field components become more stable over time after 2025-04-16T02:00Z and by 2025-04-16T10:00Z become very smooth with B_z oriented in the negative sector.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-04-15T18:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Apr 14 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity
...
Two filament eruptions were observed. The first was approximately 20
degrees long, centered near S20E20, and began erupting after ~12/2130
UTC. The second filament was approximately 12 degrees long, centered
near S22W09, and began erupting after ~13/0500 UTC. CME signatures were
observed in subsequent coronagraph imagery following each event.
Initial analysis and modeling indicated a likely Earth-directed
component, with anticipated arrival at Earth near midday on 16 Apr.


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Apr 14 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with isolated active periods
likely, on 14-15 Apr as CH influence wanes. An increase in geomagnetic
activity is likely on 16 Apr, with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels
are likely, in response the anticipated arrival of the CMEs that left
the Sun on 13 Apr.

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Apr 15 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is
likely to become enhanced to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic
storm levels 16 Apr due to the arrival of the aforementioned CME (see
Solar Wind section). Merging of the two CMEs increases chances for
higher activity resulting in a slight chance to reach G3 (Strong) storm
levels during this time.

Lead Time: 47.78 hour(s)
Difference: -1.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-04-13T16:49Z

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